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The correct prediction of novel coronavirus outbreaks since 1984 has been the last straw in the US presidential election, which has been the last straw to crush Trump's re-election.
Allan Lichtman, a professor at American University, said that so far, the election situation in 2020 is still tight, but concerns about the economic damage caused by the potential epidemic may be a key factor in weakening Trump's prospects for re-election.
"What will happen to the economy in the context of the epidemic crisis is clearly a big open question," Lichtman told the independent. We don't know if the crisis will come to an end, or if it could lead to a global epidemic and plunge the United States into recession, which will obviously put trump to the end. "
In fact, once the U.S. government is a little bit careless, the virus spreads in its own country. At present, when the U.S. hasn't launched a high-level epidemic prevention response, there is a possibility of rapid and large-scale spread. If the epidemic spreads in the United States, at that time, the public opinion may point to the trump government, denouncing them for lax control and improper policy.
Lichtman constructed an analysis model named "the key to the White House". Its operation is based on the assumption that the results of the presidential election are mainly affected by the performance of the ruling party in the voting process.
According to this theory, Americans choose a president on the basis of the current president's response and influence to major events during his term of office.
On election day, when voters evaluate the president, everything else - media ads, debates, news coverage and television appearances - can be ignored.
Lichtman pointed out the weakness of Trump's campaign, and thought that trump had some disturbing signs, including the heavy losses of the Republican Party in the 2018 mid-term election, the lack of major foreign policy success, and the persistent scandal. At the same time, he was also a presidential candidate with poor charm.
In recent days, the outbreak of coronavirus in many parts of the world has hurt the US market, which has disrupted the global supply chain and scared investors. The three major U.S. stock indexes recorded the largest one-day point drop on Thursday, while the S & P 500 and Nasdaq composite index also recorded the largest one-day percentage drop since August 2011.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and prevention on Wednesday also reported the first case of infection that has not yet been linked to an existing case.
At present, although the future direction of the epidemic is still uncertain, large Wall Street institutions have sharply lowered their economic forecast for this year. In a report to clients on Thursday, Bank of America economists led by Ethan Harris said global economic growth will fall to 2.8% this year, lower than the previous forecast of 3.1%, the lowest level since 2009.
However, it is worth mentioning that, although Lichtman predicted the election results almost all the way, his recent political predictions are not all true. Last year, he said that trump would be impeached in 2019, believing that the Mueller report would bring great danger to trump, and vice president Burns would take over the throne, which did not come true.
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